Florida’s Economic Boom Continues
The Floridian economy is expected to once again grow robustly in 2024, expanding at roughly twice the pace of the national economy. The Sunshine State’s employment growth has outpaced the rest of the nation’s consistently in the past four years, but is expected to moderate in 2024. Nonetheless, job opportunities in the Sunshine State are expected to stay more plentiful than the rest of the nation. These job opportunities, along with the long-standing draws of low taxes, mild winters, and housing that’s more affordable than the Northeast, are expected to contribute to another solid year of population gains.
Spillovers from weaker national and global economies are expected to weigh on the critical tourism sector, contributing to a modest rise in the unemployment rate in 2024. Another step down for homebuilding is also likely to contribute to higher unemployment in the state. Nonetheless, Florida’s unemployment rate is expected to hold below the national unemployment rate. Total personal income is forecast to grow around 5%, solidly outpacing inflation.
Housing construction and sales are expected to remain soft as high house prices and interest rates strain affordability. Single-family construction is projected to increase, adding about 130,000 units to Florida’s housing supply. But a sharp uptick in rental vacancy rates over the past two years is weighing on multifamily construction, resulting in less multifamily construction this year. Reflecting higher supply, lower employment, and income gains, house price increases are likely to moderate further from the blistering pace of increases recorded in the last few years. High insurance costs and the exit of some insurers from certain markets in the state present downside risks to house prices.
For a PDF version of this publication, click here: 2024 Florida Mid-Year State Economic Outlook
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